May 22: Mostly Dry Today, More Rain Tomorrow


Monday's storms resulted in numerous severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings -- the storms were very slow-moving, allowing them to drop copious amounts of rain in some neighborhoods, while other areas remained almost completely dry. Look at the rainfall amounts from just Wake county:

Over 4" of rain around North Hills, but just a few miles away there was barely a trace!

That rain finally dissipated overnight -- higher rain chances are in the forecast again tomorrow and over much of the holiday weekend, but at least we'll get a chance to dry out today. The North American Model's radar simulation shows just a few blips, enough to warrant today's 20-30% rain chance:

Temperatures will warm up as southwesterly winds help to disperse this morning's clouds...and the humidity will be high enough to make it feel a degree or two warmer:

The boundary that sparked yesterday's storms will drop back into central North Carolina on Wednesday, giving us another good chance of thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon and evening. Tomorrow's radar simulation shows the storms moving faster than yesterday's:

But we'll still be on the lookout for flooding, in case the heaviest rain falls onto the spots already soaked by yesterday's storms. A few of the storms could be strong to severe, with damaging winds and hail the primary threats -- the Storm Prediction Center has outlined the northern half of central North Carolina in a "Marginal Risk" (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms: That means we expect numerous storms, a few of which could prompt severe thunderstorm warnings. Just plan on staying weather-aware, especially in the afternoon and evening.

Another break from the highest rain chances will give us a chance to dry out Thursday and Friday, and maybe into Saturday, before the rain chances go back up for Sunday and Memorial Day:

That moisture will be fed our way by a developing disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is keeping a close eye on it -- right now they estimate a 40% chance it develops into a tropical depression by the end of the week: The European forecast model is even more bullish, showing a 50% chance of a depression forming in the Gulf: Regardless of what that system becomes (or doesn't become), it will result in another prolonged stretch of unsettled weather for central North Carolina.



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