April 10: Calm Weather For A Few Days

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Yesterday’s borderline storm chance fizzled without any fanfare — fine by me! Now we’re getting into a calm weather pattern for a couple of days, before a couple of rain chances head our way this weekend.

Northeasterly winds today will try to keep things cool, but abundant April sunshine will be able to overcome that effect, warming us up to the low to mid 70s this afternoon:

Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop to near-normal by early Thursday:

High clouds will gradually appear in the skies overhead on Thursday, but temperatures will still warm up into the 70s, even a degree or two warmer than today:

In fact, the 7-day forecast shows highs in the 70s each and every day!

The weekend forecast is beginning to come into better focus…it’s not etched in stone, but at least we can start to narrow things down. The three main medium-range forecast models that look that far into the future are in pretty good agreement about the big-picture forecast:

  • Most of the rain stays to our west on Friday, then rain becomes more likely Friday night.
  • Scattered showers and storms are looking more likely Saturday.
  • A break in the rain early Sunday will allow us to warm up to around 80°.
  • Stronger storms will be possible late Sunday into Sunday night.

Here’s the European forecast model’s simulation from 8:00am Friday through 8:00pm Monday:And here’s the American GFS model’s simulation for the same time frame:Those are remarkably similar, especially considering how different those models looked just 24-48 hours ago. We’re not getting a great estimate of hour-by-hour storm timing just yet — so I wouldn’t cancel any outdoor plans, but I would be flexible with those plans and have an indoor alternative in mind. Better safe than sorry!

In terms of our severe weather threat, that’s also up in the air. The fact that the strongest storms look like they’ll arrive after sunset Sunday night will help reduce the severe storm risk…but again, we don’t have a lot of confidence in the hour-by-hour timing just yet. The Storm Prediction Center’s long-range outlook for Sunday and Sunday night shows the best chance of severe weather off to our southwest:We can also look at the “analog” forecast, which compares forecast patterns to similar historical patterns. That method does show the highest severe threat to our southwest, but it also shows a 50%-60% chance of at least one severe report (58+mph wind gusts, 1″+ diameter hail, or a tornado) in our neck of the woods, based on Sunday’s setup:It even shows a 30%-40% chance of at least five severe reports late Sunday:It’s not something to be worried about this far in advance — we’ll keep an eye on things and keep you updated as the weekend gets closer!

The interwebs weren’t a giving mood with the science news yesterday, so no nerd-links today. There will be a BUNCH of stuff tomorrow though, as we’re expecting to see our first ever direct image of a black hole!

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