April 11: Nice Today, Unsettled Weather Ahead

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WEATHER

Yesterday’s weather was pretty much a “perfect 10”!

Today might not quite be a 10, but it will be a solid 9 to 9.5 — my opinion only, but I’ll stand by it. A gradual increase in high cloud cover won’t slow down the warm-up…stronger winds from the southeast will push highs into the mid to upper 70s, even near 80° around Fayetteville:

The weather looks ideal for the Bulls’ and Mudcats’ home openers this evening:

It’s last dry day in the forecast for a little while, as an unsettled weather pattern will set up tomorrow through the weekend. The forecast data has been waffling back and forth with Friday’s rain chances, now showing a better chance of off-and-on showers, especially in the western half of central North Carolina. This is the North American Model’s radar simulation from 8:00am through 8:00pm Friday:That model shows the best chance of rain in the afternoon and evening, but other models have been indicating some showers already by late morning, so keep the umbrella handy. In between the showers, temperatures will still reach well into the 70s:The simulation from 8:00pm Friday through 8:00am Saturday shows showers and storms working their way farther east, gradually affecting the rest of central North Carolina:

We’ll switch over to the European forecast model’s simulation to take us through Saturday (this is from 8:00am through 8:00pm again) — scattered showers and storms are likely for most of the day:While it won’t rain everywhere all of the time, I’d be very flexible with outdoor plans…and an indoor alternative is a good idea to have in mind.

It looks like we’ll see a little break from the highest rain chances Saturday night and into the first half of the day on Sunday — during that break, temperatures will approach 80° for Sunday’s highs. But that warmth will re-charge the atmosphere for a chance of stronger storms Sunday evening and overnight. The European model’s simulation from 8:00am Sunday through 8:00pm Monday shows the best chance of rain after sunset (in the long-range time frame we only get 6-hour chunks of data, so it’s not quite as “smooth” as the hourly loop above):The overnight timing will hopefully help to limit our severe weather potential, but it’s something we’ll have to keep an eye on throughout the weekend. The Storm Prediction Center thinks the greatest potential for severe storms will shape up off to our southwest Sunday and Sunday night:

After a few early-morning showers on Monday, we’ll clear out for a few days. Temperatures will remain pleasant through the middle of next week:

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