April 15: A Few Days Of Calm Weather

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After three straight days with severe weather in different parts of central North Carolina, the weather pattern will settle into a more tranquil arrangement for much of this week. Today will definitely be breezy, but at least we’ll be storm-free — highs will only reach into the 60s this afternoon:The wind will be strong throughout the day, so if Monday is “trash day” in your neighborhood, be prepared to retrieve that empty trash can when you get home:

The wind will calm down tonight, allowing temperatures to fall into the upper 30s and low 40s:

We’ve reached the time of year when cool-downs don’t last too long — we’ll be back into the upper 60s and low to mid 70s already tomorrow afternoon:

Highs will reach up to around 80° both Wednesday and Thursday as the dry weather continues…and then the next chance of strong storms arrives on Friday. We don’t have a lot of detailed forecast model data that far down the line, but the European forecast model’s simulation from 8:00pm Thursday through 8:00pm Saturday shows a good chance of rain for the end of the work week, and some lingering showers Saturday and Sunday:The Storm Prediction Center’s extended outlook continues to show an elevated threat for severe thunderstorms in our area on Friday:The “analog” forecast (comparing Friday’s forecast pattern to similar historical patterns) already shows a 50% chance of at least 5 severe reports on Friday:That’s why Friday is an “Alert Day” on the 7-day forecast:Once that system moves through, we’ll have to dodge a few lingering showers Saturday and Sunday, with below-average temperatures looking likely for Easter weekend. It’s WAY too soon to be adjusting any outdoor plans for the weekend, though — we’ll keep you updated as the week progresses.

I’m pulling double duty on weather and traffic this morning, so no time for the nerd-links today. They’ll be back in this space on Wednesday…

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