April 25: Borderline Severe Threat Friday

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WEATHER

More warm weather on tap today! We’ll see a mix of clouds and sunshine, with just the slightest chance of  a passing shower. This afternoon’s high temperatures will be nearly identical to yesterday’s:

The clouds will thicken overnight, keeping temperatures warm:

Our next chance of rain moves in Friday, brining a limited severe weather threat. The North American Model’s radar simulation from 7:00am through 11:00pm Friday shows some morning showers, with stronger storms developing in the afternoon and early evening:Allow me to engage in the internet equivalent of shouting: THIS WILL NOT BE A REPEAT OF LAST FRIDAY’S SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT. The Storm Prediction Center’s forecast model shows a 50-50 chance of even borderline severe ingredients in the atmosphere overhead by Friday afternoon:The SPC has included all of central North Carolina in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe weather in its Friday outlook, the lowest category on the scale:Even that might be a stretch, because so many of the ingredients on our severe thunderstorm recipe card will be either borderline or absent altogether:The “analog” forecast, which compares the forecast pattern to similar historical patterns, is also unimpressed with tomorrow’s severe threat. It shows a lower-than-50% chance of even one severe report (58+ MPH wind gusts, 1″+ hail, or a tornado):A Marginal Risk basically means that we expect numerous storms, a couple of which could prompt severe thunderstorm warnings due to a damaging wind threat. I’m not worried about hail, and while the tornado threat won’t be zero, it doesn’t look like a major factor this time around either. Just stay weather-aware throughout the day — we’ll be here to keep an eye on things for you…

Once the rain moves out late Friday evening, the weekend is looking very nice! Saturday will be a “perfect 10” kind of day, and Sunday is looking pretty good too — just a slight shower chance:The forecast has a decidedly summer-ish look by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, as we turn the calendar page from April to May. The Hurricanes’ next home game is Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals on Wednesday, and the weather looks favorable for tailgating at this point. (That’s the kind of hurricane symbol I LIKE adding to the 7-day forecast!)

LINKS

A short list today, but some good stuff…

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