December 13: Heavy Rain On The Way

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The same “filtered” sunshine that we saw yesterday will be with us again today, as a layer of high clouds continues to stream in from the southwest. Temperatures will still manage to warm up to the upper 40s to around 50° where the ice and snow lingers, into the mid to upper 50s elsewhere:

The clouds will thicken tonight, keeping temperatures above freezing:

We’ll start the day dry on Friday, then heavy rain will move in by midday and continue throughout the afternoon and into the evening. The North American Model’s radar simulation from 6:00am through 9:00pm shows the progression of the rain:

Friday night and Saturday also look rainy, with the heaviest downpours coming at us in waves. By Saturday afternoon we might see the heaviest rain finally starting to move out:

The Weather Prediction Center has included all of central North Carolina in a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 4) of “excessive rainfall” — basically, enough rain to cause some flooding:A Flash Flood Watch goes into effect at 1:00pm Friday, from Raleigh to the east and south:That’s where the heaviest rain will fall, on the order of 2″-3″+:Localized flash flooding AND river flooding will both be a concern…the Neuse River could even reach “major flooding” levels near Clayton and Smithfield.

The upper-level heart of this storm system won’t move through until late Sunday, which is why we’re keeping scattered light showers in the forecast for the second half of the weekend:The forecast dries out by Monday, with near-normal temperatures for most of next week.


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