February 12: Damp Today, Dry Tomorrow

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It’s going to be another gray day in central North Carolina, but at least it will be warmer. Hooray?

Widespread fog, mist and drizzle this morning will gradually give way to plain old cloud cover the rest of the day. Even with the clouds overhead, we’ll warm up once winds shift from the southeast to the southwest. That warmup will kick in for our southern counties first, where you’ll get up to around 70° this afternoon…farther north, you’ll be stuck in the 50s. This temperature loop from 10:00am through 8:00pm shows the high temperature in the Triangle occuring after sunset:Our chances of measurable rain will remain low for most of the day, until a band of heavy rain moves in from the west this evening and early overnight. The HRRR model’s radar simulation from 9:00am through midnight shows the isolated daytime showers, and the fast-moving heavier rain this evening:We could hear a few rumbles of thunder with that line, but our severe weather potential will remain very low.

The rain and most of the cloud cover will be out of here by early Wednesday morning — we’ll see plenty of sunshine, with temperatures near “normal” for mid-February:It will be breezy throughout the day, with westerly winds gusting over 20 mph in the afternoon.

Valentine’s Day looks very pleasant, then the forecast turns unsettled again over the weekend:There’s still a lot of conflicting data in the weekend forecast, but things have been trending in a wetter direction. One good chance of rain will move in Friday night and stick around into early Saturday. We could see some more rain Sunday and Monday, as little ripples in the atmospheric flow overhead trigger additional showers, but consider that a preliminary forecast at this point. Be flexible with any outdoor plans, and we’ll keep you updated!

Had a meeting this morning, so no time for the nerd-links. Your daily dose of nerdery will be back tomorrow…

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