February 14: Pleasant Valentine’s Day!

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WEATHER

We finally saw some sunshine yesterday, and we’ll see plenty of sun again today! Soak it up while you can, because the forecast turns wet and gloomy again by this weekend.

Let’s focus on the positive for the moment — today will be pleasant! Just a few fair-weather clouds floating through, with high temperatures well above-average this afternoon:

The clouds will increase tonight, keeping temperatures quite a bit warmer:

The cloud cover will thicken throughout the day, but some sun will still glimmer through…and winds will be strong from the southwest, pushing us well into the 60s:

We’ll stay dry during the day on Friday, then the first round of rain will move in Friday night. I think the initial wave of showers will mostly evaporate on the way in, but rain will be likely from late evening through much of Saturday. This is the North American Model’s radar simulation from 7:00pm Friday through 1:00pm Saturday:

We’re going to remain in an unsettled, generally wet weather pattern through at least the middle of next week. The European forecast model’s simulation from 1:00pm Saturday through 1:00pm Thursday shows numerous waves of rain riding the storm track through central North Carolina:The good news is that we’ll be too warm for snow or ice (and the road issues they cause) and we’ll be too cool for any severe weather threat. The breaks in between those waves of rain will help us avoid any significant flooding problems, but we’re still looking at more than three inches of rain through the middle of next week:

This type of pattern makes it easy to have high confidence in the overall forecast:But this pattern also makes it tough to have high confidence in the specifics — exactly when will it rain? When will the dry breaks take shape? Will temperatures warm up at all in those dry breaks? When the measurable rain moves out, will lingering mist and drizzle keep things wet?

The way the first wave of rain behaves will affect the second wave…which will affect the third wave, and so on. Therefore, we’re not going crazy with the rain percentages in the extended forecast:Those are still significant rain chances though, so have an indoor alternative for any outdoor plans. If you work outside, all I can say for sure is that next week will be “challenging.”

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