February 15: Wet Weather Ahead

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A prolonged stretch of wet, cool, generally unsettled and just plain gross weather will settle into central North Carolina this weekend…but at least we get to enjoy one more day of warm and dry weather!

Partial clearing and strong southwesterly winds will warm temperatures up into the 60s this afternoon, even near 70° around Fayetteville!

The clouds will thicken again this afternoon, but we’ll stay dry during the day. Rain will move in from the west late this evening and overnight, with widespread rain likely into Saturday morning:

The HRRR model’s radar simulation from 4:00pm today through 1:00pm Saturday shows the most-widespread and heaviest rain moving off to the east by early afternoon:But that doesn’t mean we’ll be dry…lingering mist, drizzle and fog will keep things damp. Temperatures will steadily drop throughout the day — we’ll start off around 50° early Saturday morning……and we’ll end up in the low 40s by late afternoon:

Sunday doesn’t look much better. I think we’ll start the day dry, although there will still be plenty of cloud cover overhead. Another round of showers will move in by Sunday afternoon — they’ll be lighter and more intermittent than Saturday’s rain. The European forecast model’s radar simulation from 7:00am Sunday through 1:00pm Monday shows the rain lingering through the first half of Presidents Day:

And there’s plenty of rain on the way after that! Another round of heavier rain will move in for Tuesday and linger into Wednesday, more showers will move through Thursday, Friday and even into Saturday. The European model’s simulation from 1:00pm Monday all the way through 1:00pm Saturday shows that it won’t rain ALL of the time, but it’s just a wet pattern overall:Adding up all of the rain, and we’re talking about over 3″ total:Because there will be breaks between the rounds of rain, at this point I don’t think we’re going to see a significant flooding threat. Also, we’ll be too warm for ice or snow, and too cool for severe weather.

There’s always some uncertainty in forecasting a pattern like this — just minor change in the timing of the “ripples” in the atmosphere riding along the storm track can change the timing of those waves of rain. So we’re leaving the rain chances “high, but not quite 100%” after tomorrow:There will be adjustments to those day-to-day chances, since the first wave will affect the second wave, which will affect the third wave, and so on down the line. But to sum things up:

Thanks, Ollie.


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