February 21: More Rain. Yes, Again.



Seattle or North Carolina? Not much of a difference for the next few days, as the Pacific Northwest-esque weather pattern remains stuck overhead. I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again:

If you’re looking for a silver lining, here’s what I can offer you today: it won’t rain everywhere all the time, and it won’t be as cold as yesterday. Hooray?

The best chance of rain today will be in the northern half of central North Carolina, through midday. Rain chances will diminish (but not disappear) this afternoon. The HRRR model’s radar simulation from 9:00am through 9:00pm shows the afternoon break…but it will still be cloudy and damp:The REALLY tricky part of today’s forecast is the temperature trend — we’ll warm up, but how much? Winds have shifted to the southwest, but I don’t think they’ll be strong enough to completely displace the cool air mass. The range of possibilites is HUGE! If the cool air doesn’t budge at all, we’ll be stuck in the 40s…but if the southwesterly wind can win out, we’ll warm up to the 60s. I think the North American Model has the best handle on things (as it often does in this type of pattern) — it shows temperatures reaching the low 50s from the Triangle northward, climbing all the way to the low to mid 60s around Fayetteville, in the Sandhills, and along the southern Coastal Plain:

There’s more rain in the forecast tonight and tomorrow — and with the wind turning back to the northeast tonight, the cool air will be locked in again. This is the North American Model’s radar simulation from midnight tonight through midnight Friday night:

Temperatures will be stuck in the 40s from late tonight through Sunday morning — and more scattered showers will keep things wet. The European forecast model’s simuation from midnight Friday night through midday Sunday shows a few breaks, but still plenty of rain:

Sunday afternoon is the time frame we’re looking forward to — winds will shift to the west and become quite strong, scouring out the cool air and helping temperatures warm all the day up to around 70°:Yes, that is a zero percent rain chance in the forecast for Monday.We’ll stay mostly dry Tuesday, before a slight chance of showers heads back in Tuesday night and Wednesday. That one could still go either way, so we’re leaving the chances low for now.


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