February 26: One More Pleasant Day

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WEATHER

It sure was nice to see all of that sunshine yesterday, and we’ll see plenty of it again today! Soak it up, because the weather pattern turns back to an “unsettled” arrangement from tomorrow all the way through early next week.

A few fair-weather clouds won’t slow down the warm-up today…the late February sunshine and southwesterly winds will warm us up to about 5° above average this afternoon:

Increasing clouds tonight will keep us from dropping too far by Wednesday morning:

Winds will shift to the northeast overnight, setting up a “cold air damming” (CAD) scenario for Wednesday. The northeasterly wind will trap the cool air up against the higher terrain to our west, so temperatures will struggle to warm up…even the low to mid 50s might be optimistic:CAD events are also characterized by mostly cloudy skies, and a little ripple in the atmosphere will spark a few rain showers. The North American Model’s radar simulation from 4:00am through 7:00pm Wednesday shows the light showers — not much more than a trace of rainfall, but damp:

The 7-day forecast is pretty turbulent, with a lot of ups and downs in our daily temperatures and daily rain chances. A dry break and wind shift will allow us to warm up Thursday, then it’s back to the wet and cool pattern Friday…then another dry-ish break Saturday before another round of wet and cold weather settles in Sunday and early next week:The European forecast model’s simulation from 7:00pm Wednesday through 7:00pm Friday shows the waves of rain, and the occasional breaks in between:

Yes, those are snowflakes mixed with the raindrops on Monday’s icon in the 7-day forecast. It’s not a significant chance of wintry weather, but temperatures will be cold enough to present a forecasting challenge. The Weather Prediction Center estimates just a 20% chance (for now) of measurable sleet and/or snow Monday and Monday night:The European forecast model’s ensemble (the same model run dozens of times with slightly different conditions) is a little more bullish, estimating a 1-in-3 chance of 1″ of snow by early Tuesday morning:Don’t get your hopes up if you’re a snow lover, and don’t despair if you’re a snow hater…this is WAY down the line in forecasting terms. It’s just something we’ll keep an eye on for the next several days.

We ARE confident that the first full week of March will bring us below-average temperatures…as the Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook shows, we won’t be the only ones shivering:And the CPC’s 8-14 day outlook even shows a decent chance that the below-average temperatures will carry on into the second weekend of March:

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