February 27: Lousy Smarch Weather


Here’s the background of today’s headline, in case you missed the reference:

March is right around the corner, but it’s not going to feel like it! Gray, cool and wet weather has settled back into central North Carolina today. The North American Model’s radar simulation from 9:00am through midnight shows the off-and-on scattered showers:Even when it’s not raining, skies will remain cloudy, with mist and drizzle keeping things wet. Temperatures won’t rebound very much in the Triangle, with even cooler weather throughout the day along the Virginia state line and farther into the Piedmont:

As skies try to clear overnight, we’ll see some dense fog developing by early Thursday morning. Temperatures will only drop to the low to mid 40s, so at least we won’t have freezing fog:

As the fog slowly dissipates, we’ll see some glimmers of sunshine around midday Thursday. Tempeartures will quickly shoot up to around 60° before the next round of rain moves in:That next round of rain moves in late Thursday, and sticks around into the Friday morning rush hour. This is the North American Model’s simulation from 1:00pm Thursday through 7:00am Friday:

Friday will be another cool and damp day, but at this point it looks like we’ll get a one-day reprieve from the rain chances on Saturday. That’s still far enough down the line that we have to leave a slight shower chance in the forecast, but Saturday looks like the better half of the weekend either way:Sunday will be wet again, and even colder weather settles in next week. We’re still looking at a chance for a few snowflakes to mix in with the raindrops early Monday, but we’re also still looking at a LOW chance of those snowflakes sticking. The Weather Prediction Center estiamtes a 20% chance of enough sleet/snow to cause road problems:The European forecast model’s ensemble (the same model run dozens of times with slightly different conditions) has backed off significantly compared to yeseterday, now showing a less-than-10% chance of accumulating snow through next Tuesday:It’s something we’ll keep an eye on, but I wouldn’t worry about it…especially this far in advance!

I’m trying to hold down the fort in both weather and traffic this morning, so no time for the nerd-links. Your daily dose of nerdiness will be back tomorrow…

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