March 8: Gray, Cool, and Damp…Again

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WEATHER

We’re wrapping up the work week with more below-normal temperatures, and it’s going to be generally cool, gray and damp into the first half of the weekend as well. Temperatures stayed above freezing this morning, but we’ll only warm up to the upper 40s in the Triangle this afternoon:Notice the big range in temperatures from north to south — it’s going to be one of those days where the cool air gets trapped in the Triangle and Piedmont, while the Sandhills and Coastal Plain manage to warm up a bit more. We’ll all see overcast skies throughout the day, with rain becoming likely this afternoon and evening. (A few sprinkles or even flurries are falling this morning, but most of the moisture is evaporating on the way down.) The HRRR model’s radar simulation from 9:00am through midnight shows the rain moving in, with the accumulating wintry stuff missing us to the north:

The showers will largely wind down after midnight, with temperatures dropping back to near 40°:

Saturday will be another cloudy and cool day — maybe a couple of degrees warmer than today:Our chances of measurable rain will be lower on Saturday, but a few spotty showers will combine with patchy mist, drizzle and fog to keep things damp. This is the North American Model’s radar simulation from 7:00am through 10:00pm:

Sunday is the wild card of the weekend — our rain chances have decreased, but it’s still a coin-flip chance of showers, and even a chance of a few thunderstorms. The European forecast model’s simulation from 10:00pm Saturday through 7:00am Monday shows showers Saturday night lingering into early Sunday, then a break, then a chance of storms closer to the coast late Sunday:I agree with that model’s assessment, that the storm chance will be highest just off to our southeast…but the Storm Prediction Center has still included our counties along the southern Coastal Plain in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) for severe weather:It’s not something I’m concerned about, but we’ll keep an eye on it over the weekend, just in case. After the Sunday morning showers, winds will shift to the southwest, we’ll see some sunshine break through, and temperatures will REALLY warm up!The mild air will stick around Monday, then Tuesday and Wednesday look cooler…but at least we’ll still be within a few degrees of what’s “normal” for this time of year.

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