May 2: Taste Of June Continues

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WEATHER

High temperatures have reached the 80s every day this week, and today will continue that pattern — in fact, forecast highs are at or above 80° every day in the 7-day forecast! We’ll be well into the 80s this afternoon, about ten degrees above-normal:The humidity won’t be dreadful, but dew points will be in the low to mid 60s all day:

Temperatures won’t drop much overnight — we’ll only fall to the low to mid 60s, with low clouds and locally dense fog developing south of the Triangle once again:

Tempeatures will warm up to the low to mid 80s again on Friday, despite increasing clouds:The clouds could drop a few showers on us Friday afternoon and evening, especially south of the Triangle. The North American Model’s radar simulation from 9:00am through 9:00pm just shows a few “radar freckles,” so we’re not talking about a significant rain chance:The weather looks pretty good for tailgating before the Hurricanes take on the Islanders in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. There’s an outside chance one of the showers south of the Triangle makes a run towards PNC Arena, but I wouldn’t worry about it:

A better rain chance remains in the forecast this weekend. Some of the moisture feeding that chance will be pulled in from the south, where an area of disturbed weather near the Bahamas is trying to get its act together. The National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on it, and estimates just a 20% chance that it even develops into a tropical depression over the next five days:The Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t “officially” start until June 1, so this is rather early for even an outside chance of tropical activity. We’ll watch it closely, but I don’t expect to have direct impact on our weather here in central North Carolina.

The weekend is just 48 hours away, but the specifics of our storm chances are still fuzzy. The American GFS model shows a good chance of afternoon showers and storms both Saturday and Sunday — this is that model’s simulation from 8:00am Saturday through 2:00pm Sunday:The more-accurate European model just shows a chance of pop-up storms Saturday afternoon, before a better chance of storms moves in late Saturday night and Sunday:I’m leaning toward that slower scenario…but IF we get more storms during the day on Saturday, a couple could briefly become severe. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe weather west of I-95:Just be flexible with your outdoor plans both Saturday and Sunday, and maybe have an indoor alternative in mind. The forecast dries out again early next week, as the warm spell continues:

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