May 3: Rain Chances Increasing



The warm and somewhat muggy weather pattern continues today, but we’re adding a chance of showers to the mix. Some fog and low cloud cover will break up by late morning, allowing the early May sunshine to warm us up to the low to mid 80s before the showers pop up:The best chance of a shower or isolated storm will be south of the Triangle:The HRRR model’s radar simulation from noon through 10:00pm shows the showers trying to make a run toward the Triangle, then everything fades out after sunset:Don’t let it impact your Hurricanes tail-gating plans:

The weekend storm chances are starting to (finally) come into better focus. I think most of Saturday will be dry, with just a slight chance of a pop-up shower or storm in the afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures will reach well into the 80s once again.The North American Model’s radar simulation brings some storms in from the west by late Saturday evening (after sunset) and overnight:Some other forecast models are a little faster with that storm chance, some are a little slower. We’ll be here keeping an eye on things, because IF the storms move in before sunset, they could be severe. I don’t think that’s the most-likely scenario, and the Storm Prediction Center is on the same page. The SPC has outlined just a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe weather in central North Carolina:

Scattered showers and storms will be with us still on Sunday — not an all-day washout, but be flexible with any outdoor plans. The SPC has again included us in a Marginal Risk:It looks like the most-favorable mix of severe weather ingredients will stay off to our east, so I’m not overly concerned about Sunday’s severe potential either.

The forecast dries out for much of next week…just a slight chance of a pop-up shower Wednesday and Thursday, as higher humidity starts to slither back into central North Carolina:


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