More above-average temperatures in store for us today, but with a little more humidity and a chance of afternoon showers. In between those showers, temperatures will be 2°-4° above normal:I can’t rule rain out anywhere across central North Carolina, but the best chance will develop along and west of I-85 this afternoon:The North American Model’s radar simulation from 9:00am through midnight shows the hit-or-miss nature of the showers…and maybe a few non-severe thunderstorms:
Our rain chances won’t be zero tomorrow, but they will be even lower than today — we’ll back up to the low to mid 80s in most spots by Thursday afternoon:
The warm and mostly-dry weather sticks around Friday, before our rain chances increase over the weekend. The timing is starting to come into better focus, but we’re still sorting through some conflicting data. I think the most-likely scenario is very similar to last weekend — one round of storms late Saturday, more off-and-on showers and storms on Sunday, clearing out by early Monday. That’s what the European forecast model’s simulation depicts (this loop is Friday through Monday):The American GFS model is less optimistic, bringing a better chance of rain in earlier on Saturday, and keeping the scattered showers and storms overhead all the way through Monday:The “analog” forecast (comparing this weekend’s pattern to similar historical patterns) shows at least some chance of at least one severe weather report from this weekend’s storms:But that is based on the less-accurate GFS model, so at this point I don’t think we’ll be looking at anything more than a Marginal or Slight Risk of severe weather, the Storm Prediction Center’s lowest two categories.
Cooler temperatures will settle in for a few days next week, as the forecast dries out:
- What happens when lightning strikes a weather radar? (About what you’d imagine.)
- When it comes to predicting fluctuations in Arctic weather, the United States is “operating in the blind,” according to the U.S. Navy’s chief meteorologist.
- A new category of El Niño has become far more prevalent in the last few decades than at any time in the past four centuries.
- Severe flooding has become a near-annual occurrence in parts of Illinois.
- There’s plenty of money to be found around Silicon Valley if you want to launch a new dating app, but startups working on climate solutions are struggling to attract funding.
- Despite countless political setbacks, climate science technology and research continues to march forward.
- Futuristic clean-energy visions of roads teeming with electric vehicles are driving the hunt for lithium. But there’s still a lot we don’t know about how and where to find it.
- Australia, acutely vulnerable to climate change, is voting this month. The outcome could provide important lessons for other democracies in the age of global warming.
- The European Space Agency’s Gaia spacecraft mapped the orbits of 14,000 asteroids during its first two years of observing.
- A “deep-learning” method developed by planetary scientists is allowing them to map other worlds. When tested on Saturn, the algorithm uncovered details of a complex atmospheric storm.
- A new study shows that just before our solar system formed, a pair of neutron stars may have collided and exploded, blasting us with material (including gold) from a distance of only 1000 light years away.
- It may seem strange that Chernobyl, an area known for the deadliest nuclear accident in history, could become a refuge for all kinds of animals, but that is exactly what some scientists think has happened.
- On that note, if you have HBO, be sure to watch the network’s new Chernobyl miniseries. We watched the first episode yesterday, and it’s remarkable.