May 8: Spotty Showers, Still Warm



More above-average temperatures in store for us today, but with a little more humidity and a chance of afternoon showers. In between those showers, temperatures will be 2°-4° above normal:I can’t rule rain out anywhere across central North Carolina, but the best chance will develop along and west of I-85 this afternoon:The North American Model’s radar simulation from 9:00am through midnight shows the hit-or-miss nature of the showers…and maybe a few non-severe thunderstorms:

Our rain chances won’t be zero tomorrow, but they will be even lower than today — we’ll back up to the low to mid 80s in most spots by Thursday afternoon:

The warm and mostly-dry weather sticks around Friday, before our rain chances increase over the weekend. The timing is starting to come into better focus, but we’re still sorting through some conflicting data. I think the most-likely scenario is very similar to last weekend — one round of storms late Saturday, more off-and-on showers and storms on Sunday, clearing out by early Monday. That’s what the European forecast model’s simulation depicts (this loop is Friday through Monday):The American GFS model is less optimistic, bringing a better chance of rain in earlier on Saturday, and keeping the scattered showers and storms overhead all the way through Monday:The “analog” forecast (comparing this weekend’s pattern to similar historical patterns) shows at least some chance of at least one severe weather report from this weekend’s storms:But that is based on the less-accurate GFS model, so at this point I don’t think we’ll be looking at anything more than a Marginal or Slight Risk of severe weather, the Storm Prediction Center’s lowest two categories.

Cooler temperatures will settle in for a few days next week, as the forecast dries out:


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