A new analysis suggests that Hispanic voters played a decisive role in last November’s midterms and will once again be a crucial bloc during the 2020 presidential election.
The data, which was released Wednesday by Univision, shows Hispanic turnout on average almost doubled between 2014 and 2018 in seven states: Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Hispanic turnout increased regardless of party affiliation, but independent Hispanic voters were especially energized to vote in 2018, more than doubling turnout on average in the seven states analyzed.
All seven states will be targets for presidential campaigns in 2020 because of the close results in 2016. In Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, President Trump defeated Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton by less than five percentage points. Mr. Trump’s reelection campaign has already held a rally in Pennsylvania and will hold ones in North Carolina and Ohio before the end of the summer.
In addition to being presidential battleground states, several of these states will decide who controls the Senate in 2020. Republican incumbents in North Carolina, Colorado, and Georgia are facing reelection battles and open seats in New Mexico and Arizona are up for grabs. Univision’s data from the previous two midterm elections suggests interest in down-ballot races could be a motivator of increased turnout for 2020.
Here is a state-by-state breakdown of some of the key findings in the data:
- 345,000 Hispanics voted in 2018, more than doubling the 2014 turnout of 173,000
- Young Hispanic voter turnout increased 232 percent while non-Hispanic grew 149 percent
- Both Republicans and Democrats saw significant growth in turnout of Hispanics for their parties
- One in five new registered voters were Hispanic
- All parties saw higher turnout from Hispanic voters, with the “Independent/Other” category having the highest at 74 percent
- Hispanic turnout increased by 43 percent, double the increase of non-Hispanic voters in the same timeframe
- Turnout among Hispanic voters increased 2.8 times as much as non-Hispanic turnout
- 135,000 Hispanics voted in 2018, more than doubling the 2014 turnout of 56,000
- Turnout among young Hispanic voters aged 18-24 increased 701 percent between 2014 and 2018
- Nearly half of all new registered voters in New Mexico were Hispanic
- Turnout among Hispanic voters increased 1.5 times as much as non-Hispanic between 2014 and 2018
- All party affiliations saw stronger growth among Hispanic voters compared to non-Hispanic
- The number of Hispanic registered voters grew by 28 percent while non-Hispanics declined by four percent
- The Republican party saw a 47 percent increase in Hispanic voter turnout versus a 115 percent increase for Democrats
- Hispanic turnout increased 4.3 times as much than non-Hispanic turnout between 2014 and 2018
- Turnout of young Hispanic voters aged 18-24 increased 289 percent between 2014 and 2018
- 85,000 Hispanics voted in 2018, almost doubling the 2014 turnout of 47,000
- Hispanic registered voters saw strong growth in turnout across all party affiliations
- Hispanic turnout for the Democratic Party increased 113 percent between 2014 and 2018
- Turnout among Hispanic voters aged 18-24 increased by 382 percent
- 169,000 Hispanics voted in 2018, more than doubling 2014 turnout of 83,000
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