November 1: Warm And Breezy, Storms On The Way

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WEATHER

We started off with mild temperatures this morning, but also some locally dense fog — that was a result of the southwesterly wind bringing more moisture into central North Carolina. Those southwesterly winds will also help to push temperatures up to the low to mid 70s this afternoon:The clouds will thicken throughout the day, with a chance of a few showers late this afternoon, continuing into this evening and tonight. The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows that activity:

Temperatures will remain mild overnight, only dropping back to the 60s:

We could see some scattered showers to start the day on Friday, then I expect a break from the rain chances from late morning through mid-afternoon. Widespread rain and thunderstorms will become likely again by late afternoon into the evening. This is the North American Model’s radar simulation from 6:00am Friday through 3:00am Saturday:

The strength of those afternoon and evening storms will depend on how unstable the atmosphere is…which depends on how much we warm up. Right now our forecast shows highs in the lower half of the 70s in between rounds of rain on Friday:That’s warm enough for a few storms to approach severe limits, but not warm enough for a significant severe weather threat. The Storm Prediction Center has included all of central North Carolina in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe weather, with damaging winds the main threat:

Keep in mind, that could still go either way…some of the forecast models show highs only in the 60s, which would almost eliminate any severe potential. But some models show highs in the mid to upper 70s, and just that few degrees of additional warmth would boost the threat. The Storm Prediction Center’s model highlights that uncertainty, showing a 40-50% chance of thunderstorms with severe characteristics Friday afternoon:It’s not something you should be worried about, but just plan on staying weather-aware during the afternoon and early evening tomorrow.

The rain will move out late Friday night, leaving us with a dry and pleasant weekend!Lots of questions about that next chance of rain on Monday as well…for now, be flexible with any outdoor plans early next week. We’ll get a better handle on that system once tomorrow’s storms are out of the way.

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