RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) – With candidates across North Carolina trying to get every vote they can by next Tuesday’s primary, some of the winners will have a much harder job crossing the finishing line in November.

North Carolina’s population grew enough in the past decade to get an additional seat in Congress, bringing the total to 14.

Based on voter registration, it could be an even split with District 13 being the one tossup.

That district includes Johnston County and parts of Wake, Harnett and Wayne counties. It’s partly urban but mostly rural and has proven to be a contentious primary race between Republicans.

While not considered a complete toss-up the seat held by retiring Rep. G.K. Butterfield, a historically Democratic stronghold, is not an absolute.

District 1 contains much of the northeastern portion of the state.

It has more registered Democrats than Republicans.

But as with most races, it’s the unaffiliated voter who will make the difference.

“So I would say a safe bet is probably 8/6. If Republicans get nine seats that’s a very good year and a very good turnout for Republicans,” said Catawba College political science professor Michael Bitzer.

Bitzer said which candidate wins Tuesday’s primary matters less than it used to matter.

It mostly boils down to party.

“It’s really not necessarily so much nowadays about the candidates or the policies or the issues. It’s about how energized and how mobilized are the voter bases for both parties,” he said.

Off-year elections usually mean a big win for the party that doesn’t control the White House.

So the momentum is behind Republicans.

But the U.S. Supreme Court and a congressional investigation could very well swing the pendulum in some races.

“I think two wildcards for November that we will find out over the summer is certainly the Supreme Court’s final opinion on whether Roe v. Wade is overturned or not as well as the potential hearings for the January 6th committee which could also release its report in the fall,” Bitzer said.