RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) – It may be early April, but hurricane season will be here before you know it.

We have had a string of years with above-normal activity, and this year looks to follow a similar pattern.

This morning, Colorado State University released its initial outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.

Once again, we are looking at an active year with 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. For reference, a major hurricane is a category 3 or higher.

For comparison, the 30-year average from 1991 to 2020 is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

It is important to remember that there are a multitude of atmospheric factors that are analyzed and impact tropical activity. But the ingredients look to come together to create an active season. Dynamical models are also indicating that there will be heightened activity in the Atlantic.

“So overall, this kind of continuous La Niña-like signal that we’ve seen for the last several years looks like it’s probably going to persist through this year’s hurricane season. If this forecast were to verify and we were to get another above-average season, it would be the 7th above-average Atlantic hurricane season in a row. So if it seems like it’s been busy, it’s because it has,” says Dr. Phil Klotzbach, who is responsible for the seasonal forecasts issued by Colorado State University.

While pinpointing exactly where a tropical system will make landfall is intricate, Colorado State has released probabilities for which coastal areas could see landfalls.

For the entire continental U.S. coastline, the probability of at least one major hurricane landfall is 71%. In comparison, the century average is 52%.

For the East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, the probability of a major hurricane landfall is 47%. This is higher than the century average of 31%.

Their data also shows probabilities for coastal states, including North Carolina.

According to Colorado State, the probability for at least one named storm to track within 50 miles of the state is 85%. Their data shows a 56% chance of a hurricane passing within 50 miles of the state, with a 12% chance of a major hurricane.

All of these probabilities are above the climatological averages for such events. The climate data analyzed is from 1880 to 2020.

NOAA’s forecast for this year’s season will be released in May, and Colorado State will provide another update on June 2nd.

Keep in mind, no matter how the season plays out, it only takes one storm in your area to make the season active to you.

While we look at the forecasts for the season, now is the time to look at your preparedness kit and make sure you and your family are hurricane ready.