August 14: More storms ahead



Tuesday’s storms prompted numerous severe thunderstorm warnings, and resulted in a few wind damage reports:We started off this morning with more rain, but those showers are diminishing as I type this, and a break from the rain will continue through mid-afternoon. As the August sunshine breaks through the clouds, temperatures will warm up…a LOT:The humidity is still gross:And that will make it feel like 100°+ in a lot of locations this afternoon:That heat will re-charge the atmosphere for more scattered storms late this afternoon and this evening:The North American Model’s radar simulation from noon today through 6:00am Thursday shows the best chance of additional storms from the Triangle to the south and east, diminishing overnight:Those locations also have the greatest potential for severe weather, but it’s a lower threat compared to yesterday. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a “Marginal Risk” (the lowest category) for roughly the eastern half of central North Carolina:That means we expect numerous storms, a couple of which may prompt severe thunderstorm warnings.

The humidity isn’t going anywhere, so temperatures tonight will only drop to the low to mid 70s:We’ll heat back up to around 90° tomorrow:Once again, a chance of scattered showers and storms will bubble up in the heat and humidity. The NAM’s simulation tomorrow doesn’t show quite as much activity (this is from 6:00am through midnight Thursday):And once again, the great potential for any severe storms will be south and east of the Triangle:

The pattern will be very similar Friday and Saturday, just with slightly lower storm chances — more activity to the southeast, less to the northwest:A series of ripples in the upper atmosphere will trek overhead early next week, bumping up our daily rain chances just a little:It’s a notoriously difficult weather pattern to nail down, so stay tuned for updates as we head into the weekend.


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