August 15: Stagnant Weather Pattern



The same weather pattern will repeat itself over at least the next seven days, with only subtle changes day-to-day: some morning clouds give way to midday sunshine, temperatures heat up to around 90°, scattered showers and storms develop in the late afternoon and evening, and abundant humidity sticks around all day and night. (Maybe I should copy the text of today’s post and just re-use it for the next several days…)

Once the sun breaks through today, temperatures will warm up to around 90°:Factor in the stifling humidity, and it will feel like close to 100°:A rogue shower or storm could develop at any point today, but the best chance will take shape late this afternoon, continuing into this evening and early tonight:Areas south and east of the Triangle have a slightly higher rain chance, while it’s slightly lower to the northwest — but it’s a decent chance of a few storms everywhere:The HRRR model’s radar simulation from 2pm through 2am shows the hit-or-miss nature of the storms:Just be flexible with any outdoor plans and be prepared for the possibility of rain…including if you’re heading out to Cary to watch the International Women’s Champions Cup match this evening:Our severe weather threat will be limited, but not zero — a storm or two could pose a damaging wind threat, mostly along the Coastal Plain. That’s where the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a “Marginal Risk” (the lowest category) of severe weather:

Just a slight change for Friday — our rain chances will be a little lower. (The same areas will see the highest chance overall.) The North American Model’s simulation from noon to midnight shows more limited activity:It’s a similar story on Saturday…slightly lower storm chances will lead to slightly hotter temperatures:A series of ripples in the upper atmosphere will spark intermittent thunderstorms Sunday through Wednesday. There will be plenty of humidity available for those storms, since we’re not going to see any real change on the Muggy Meter into early next week:Trying to pin down the specific timing of those ripples is almost impossible this far in advance, so just be flexible with outdoor plans for the foreseeable future. We’ll be here to keep you updated on the day-to-day and hour-by-hour rain chances, for as long as this unsettled pattern sticks around.


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