August 21: Light At The End Of The Tunnel



Our stretch of hazy, hot and humid weather continues today, but cooler temperatures are right around the corner…maybe even a break in the humidity!But that won’t happen until this weekend.

Some spotty early-morning showers are trying to slow down today’s warm-up, but those showers will be gone by late morning. The emerging August sunshine will heat us up to the low 90s in most spots this afternoon:The humidity is still…wait for it…gross:So the heat index will still approach (or exceed) 100° by mid-afternoon:Our rain chances will remain pretty low this afternoon, before another little atmospheric ripple sparks some spotty showers or storms this evening:The HRRR model’s radar simulation from noon through midnight shows the best chance north of the Triangle:

Thursday will be even hotter…probably the hottest day we’ll see for a while:It will be just as humid, so the heat index will be worse:A better chance of storms will develop later in the day on Thursday, but the best chance will develop Friday as a cold front heads our way:Some of Friday’s storms could be strong or even severe — the Storm Prediction Center has already outlined a “Marginal Risk” of severe weather:That’s the SPC’s lowest category, but it could be bumped up a notch to a “Slight Risk” over the next couple of days.

The cold front will slowly progress across central North Carolina on Saturday, with a continuing chance of showers and storms — but that will knock high temperatures down to the low 80s!The big question in the extended forecast: does the front make it all the way through North Carolina, or does it stall out overhead? If it stalls, lingering showers and storms will remain likely Sunday and Monday…if it moves out, the forecast will be much drier. The latest forecast data is trending in a drier direction, as shown here by a big drop on the European forecast model’s Muggy Meter:I’ve reduced Sunday’s and Monday’s rain chances just a bit in the 7-day forecast…there’s still enough uncertainty in the data that we can’t be TOO optimistic just yet. We’ll keep you updated — fingers crossed that we can salvage half of the weekend!

One thing we will NOT have to worry about: Tropical Storm Chantal. The National Hurricane Center has started issuing advisories on the Atlantic basin’s third tropical storm. It’s way out there in the Atlantic Ocean, and it’s just going to meander around through early next week, gradually weakening to a tropical depression:No need to be concerned about this one.


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