August 28: A Few Showers, Tracking Dorian



We started off with a few light showers this morning, thanks to the humidity that steadily increased over the last 24 hours. But the August sunshine is already burning through the leftover clouds, and temperatures will warm well into the 80s this afternoon:A few showers will pop back up this afternoon, but they’ll be pretty few and far between:The HRRR model’s radar simulation from 10:00am through 10:00pm is thoroughly unimpressed with our rain chances:

Today’s humidity isn’t pleasant, but a significantly drier air mass will move in tonight — we’ll stay (mostly) on the lower half of the Muggy Meter until Sunday:

Dry weather prevails from tomorrow into the first day of Labor Day weekend, then things get…complicated:Sunday and Monday will bring us enough humidity to fuel some scattered showers or storms, but the long-range forecast largely hinges on how Tropical Storm Dorian behaves.


Tropical Storm Dorian is still making its way through the Caribbean, and will pass over Puerto Rico later today:The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center is north of previous forecast tracks, and shows Dorian becoming a hurricane by tomorrow night:The northward shift in the projected path means that Dorian will avoid interacting with the Bahamas, and should avoid any strong wind shear that would disrupt further intensification. The warm water in the southwestern Atlantic will provide the fuel for Dorian to strengthen further:The NHC anticipates that Dorian will approach Florida over the weekend, still as a hurricane:The “cone of uncertainty” is wide at that point, and the range of possibilities from the forecast data is even wider. The majority of computer models follow the NHC’s path toward the Florida coast, but a few are now showing a northward curve (image from forecast models are also showing significant disagreement regarding how much Dorian will strengthen later this week:Let’s focus on just the European forecast model’s ensemble — it’s the same model run dozens of times with slightly different conditions, to give us a range of possibilities. The “spaghettios” plot from that model shows the position and intensity of Dorian from those dozens of model runs — the potential tracks range from Key West to Hatteras, and the potential intensities range from tropical storm to major hurricane:Frustrating? YUP. I’d love to be able to give you a confident forecast of “this is where it’s going, this is how strong it will be,” but the data is just all over the place right now. EVERYONE from the Outer Banks to the Florida Keys should be paying attention to this storm over the next several days. It’s likely that some of the moisture associated with Dorian will eventually make its way into central North Carolina next week, but any potential direct impact for the Carolina coast is purely speculative at this point. We’ll keep you updated with the latest information as we head into the holiday weekend…


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