RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — The first named storm could come within next two days as hurricane season begins today.

A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico continues to be monitored by the National Hurricane Center as the Atlantic Hurricane Season gets underway. 

As of Thursday morning, the likeliness of development jumped to a 50 percent chance over the two to seven days. 

According to the NHC, environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development. A short-lived tropical depression or storm could form over the next day or so and meander over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. 

Strong wind shear is expected to develop by the weekend and create unfavorable conditions for additional development. However, regardless of development, heavy rain and strong winds are expected over a portion of the Flordia Penisula through the weekend.  

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico later Thursday.

The first named storm will be Arlene. NOAA predicts a near-average hurricane season.