December 17: Low Severe Threat Today



Yet another round of rain makes its way through central North Carolina today — the first batch of showers arrived just after sunrise, and there’s plenty more on the way. The HRRR model’s radar simulation from 9:00am through 9:00pm shows the heaviest rain from late morning into this afternoon, then things quiet down this evening.

Despite the clouds and rain, temperatures will be unseasonably warm thanks to strong southwesterly winds. Today’s high temperatures will occur around noon, then we’ll slowly drop into this evening.

While that’s unusually warm for mid-December, it’s not quite warm enough for any significant severe weather threat. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe storms for the southern half of central North Carolina.

There will be a lot of wind energy in the atmosphere overhead, but the lack of thermodynamic energy — the combination of warmth and humidity — keeps the severe threat borderline. We’ll keep a close eye on the radar, just in case!

Once the rain moves out, so does the warmth. Temperatures will drop to the 30s by early Wednesday morning.

Abundant sunshine on Wednesday won’t warm us up much, only to the mid to upper 40s in most spots.

The chilly air sticks around into the first half of the weekend. Our rain chances on Saturday don’t look nearly as impressive as they did 24 hours ago — the coastal storm system looks like it will stay mostly off to our south.

I’ll leave a low-end rain chance in the forecast Sunday and Monday, just in case that coastal system jogs north again. Other than that, the forecast looks dry through Christmas, with temperatures climbing to almost 60° both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.


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