February 11: Rain. Again. And Again.

Weather

WEATHER

Well, this sounds familiar…unusually warm weather, with widespread rain and a chance for severe storms. The good news is that the rain won’t be as heavy as last Thursday, and the severe weather threat will be much lower. It’s already been a wet morning, and widespread rain will continue much of the day.

The lower rain chances this afternoon will allow temperatures to warm up to around 70°.

That’s warm enough for some of the showers to become full-fledged thunderstorms, and a couple could be strong enough to prompt severe thunderstorm warnings. The HRRR model’s radar simulation from 9:00am through 6:00pm shows the morning rain, the brief break, and the narrow band of afternoon storms.

The Storm Prediction Center has included most of central North Carolina in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe weather. For comparison’s sake, last Thursday’s risk was at level 3, an Enhanced Risk. Damaging straight-line winds will be the primary concern.

The SPC’s forecast model shows a 40% chance that the afternoon storms reach even borderline severe status, but it’s still something we’ll keep an eye on.

Once those storms move out, we’re FAR from done with the rain chances. Another batch of rain will move through overnight, and off-and-on light rain showers will be possible throughout the day on Wednesday. The North American Model’s simulation from 10:00pm today through 10:00pm Wednesday shows how light the activity will be…but keep the umbrella handy!

Wednesday won’t just be damp…it will be cool as well, with highs stuck in the 50s in the Triangle. Our southern communities have a better chance of reaching 60°.

One more round of rain will move through on Thursday. This is the European model’s simulation from 7:00am through 7:00pm Thursday.

Warmer temperatures will accompany Thursday’s rain, then the bottom drops out for Friday and Saturday. Highs will only reach the 40s, with Saturday morning’s lows in the mid 20s!

Another stretch of warm-but-unsettled weather kicks in on Sunday and continues through most of next week. The long-range forecast data is VERY muddled, so I’m leaving each day’s rain chances just below 50-50. We’ll be able to focus in on that part of the forecast once this current stretch of unsettled weather comes to an end.

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