February 14: Dry and Cooler For A Few Days



Yesterday’s rain is gone, and the lingering clouds this morning won’t be with us all day. The sun will start breaking through the clouds this morning, leaving us with partly cloudy skies this afternoon. Temperatures won’t warm up much, only to around 50° in the Triangle — a little warmer to the south, a little cooler to the north.

With mostly clear skies tonight, temperatures will really drop off after sunset. We’ll end up in the 20s by early Saturday morning!

Abundant sunshine won’t warm us up very much on Saturday — highs will only reach the 40s, about 10° below-average across the board.

We’ll see gradually increasing clouds on Sunday, but those clouds won’t give us much of a rain chance. A similarly low chance on President’s Day means we should be mostly dry through the holiday weekend. Monday’s temperatures will climb back to or above 60° in most spots.

The next good chance of rain heads our way on Tuesday, after we warm up to the upper 60s. The most-widespread rain looks like it will fall Tuesday night, departing early Wednesday. Another shot of chilly air will move in for the end of next week, but I still can’t rule out some straggling showers in that time frame.

Yesterday I wrote about the chance of snow indicated by some of the forecast data. It’s still a “split decision” between the European forecast model and the American GFS model…but now those models have flip-flopped. “The Euro” is showing dry conditions Thursday and Friday, before another good chance of rain heads our way next Saturday.

Meanwhile, the GFS model is pointing to a wintry mix trying to change to snow at the end of next week.

Like I said yesterday, we’re still at the point where the ensemble model data is more useful — that’s the result of running the same model dozens of times with slightly different conditions. (It lets us narrow down the range of most-likely scenarios.) Both models’ ensembles indicate at least some potential for snow late next week, but not enough to get excited (or worried) about.

We’ll keep an eye on it, just in case!


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