February 17: Nice Today, Warm But Wet Tuesday

Weather

WEATHER

We started off this morning with some locally dense fog, but the rest of Presidents Day is looking nice! We’ll see plenty of sun and a few fair-weather clouds, with highs around 60° in the Triangle — as usual, a little cooler north of the Triangle, a little warmer south.

Clouds will increase overnight, keeping temperatures above 40° for Tuesday morning’s lows.

We’ll start the day dry on Tuesday, before off-and-on showers develop in the afternoon. The North American Model’s radar simulation from 7:00am through 7:00pm shows the scattered activity, with the heavier rain looming to our west Tuesday evening.

Tuesday’s highs will still reach into the 60s, despite the clouds and showers.

The most-widespread and heaviest rain will move in Tuesday night and stick around into early Wednesday morning. Back to the NAM model’s simulation, from 7:00pm Tuesday through 1:00pm Wednesday.

As the rain moves out, it will take the warmth with it. Temperatures will steadily drop on Wednesday, making it one of the “upside-down” days we get several times each winter. We’ll be around 50° at sunrise Wednesday, dropping to the low 40s by sunset…and the chilly air will linger Thursday and Friday.

The upper atmosphere will be cold enough for a few snowflakes or sleet pellets to mix in with some cold rain showers on Thursday. It’s lower than a 50-50 chance of showers to begin with, so don’t get too excited/worried. The American GFS model shows the bulk of the moisture missing us off to the south on Thursday.

The European forecast model is a little more enthusiastic, at least in terms of our rain chances.

At this point, I think the most we’d see is a slushy dusting on lawns and rooftops — roads would be wet, not icy. The European model’s ensemble (running the same model dozens of times with slightly different conditions) shows the best chance of that slushy dusting along the northern Coastal Plain.

So if you’re a winter weather enthusiast…don’t get too excited. If the very idea of snow makes you want to re-locate to the Caribbean…don’t get too worried. We’ll keep you updated!

Temperatures will gradually warm up over the weekend, and most of the weekend is looking dry at this point. The next rain-maker should hold off until Sunday night and Monday, with a generally-unsettled pattern potentially lingering into the middle of next week.

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