January 10: Warm and Wet Pattern Ahead

Weather

WEATHER

Our streak of above-average high temperatures in the Triangle continues! We hit 51° yesterday, just one degree above-average…but it was our 17th straight day with an above-normal high.

That streak will continue for the next several days, as a prolonged stretch of warm and increasingly wet weather settles into central North Carolina. We’ll hit the low 60s in the Triangle this afternoon — a little cooler north, quite a bit warmer to the south and east.

Thickening clouds will increasingly block the sun today, but wind direction matters more than sunlight this time of year. Despite the clouds, we’re not looking at much more than a passing sprinkle today and tonight. Temperatures tonight won’t drop much, only the mid to upper 50s by early Saturday.

Saturday will be an unseasonably warm and very breezy day. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 70s in most spots — the record both in the Triangle and in Fayetteville is 76°.

We’ll just a slight chance of a passing shower during the day, but sustained winds at 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35 mph might keep you from enjoying the warmth.

The first of several waves of rain will move in late Saturday night. The North American Model’s radar simulation from 10:00pm Saturday through 1:00pm Sunday shows thunderstorms decaying as they move in after midnight. The latest data indicates that off-and-on showers will linger for much of the day Sunday.

The Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for Saturday night and Sunday shows a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe storms for the southern half of central North Carolina. I’m really not concerned about that threat at this point — at this time of year, everything has to come together perfectly in the atmosphere for a significant severe weather threat.

The exceptional warmth continues Sunday…and even with more waves of rain headed our way Monday and Tuesday, temperatures will still run about 15°-20° above-normal.

The timing of the most-widespread rain Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday is still really up in the air, but each day will bring us a decent rain chance. The European model’s simulation from 1:00pm Sunday through 1:00pm Thursday shows that we might catch a break from the rain after sunrise Thursday.

The long-range data is muddled enough that I can’t completely remove the rain chances from the forecast for Thursday and Friday…but it we’re going to get some dry weather, those are the day. Another round of colder rain looks like it will head our way next Saturday.

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