January 15: Still Mild, But Changes Are On The Way


We’re approaching the end of a very long run of above-average temperatures that dates all the way back to before Christmas! Each and every day so far in 2020 has recorded an above-normal high in the Triangle…some just barely above, but it counts.

The un-January warm spell continues today and tomorrow, before a stretch of “typical” January weather settles into central North Carolina. We’ll reach the low 60s in the Triangle this afternoon — several degrees warmer to the south and east, just a bit cooler to the north.

We won’t see much sunshine today, but unlike the last few days our rain chances will be more miss than hit.

The best chance of showers scoots through overnight as a cold front squeezes the atmosphere overhead. The HRRR model’s radar simulation from noon today through 6:00am Thursday shows the limited rain chances.

With the blanket of clouds still overhead tonight, our temperatures won’t change much. We’ll briefly dip to the upper 50s this evening, then we’ll warm back up to the low 60s by sunrise Thursday.

Temperatures will hover in the low 60s through late morning — by midday, noticeable changes will start to kick in. Skies will clear, winds will pick up and shift to the northwest, and temperatures will start to drop…but just to the 50s during the afternoon.

The big temperature drop will happen Thursday night. We’ll wake up to temperatures near 30° early Friday morning — very close to normal for mid-January, but it will feel startling! Friday’s highs in the 40s will be our first below-average high temperatures of 2020.

We’ll start the day dry on Saturday — the best chance of rain will approach by late afternoon and move through central North Carolina in the evening and overnight. The European forecast model’s simulation for the weekend shows the last showers moving out before sunrise on Sunday.

Next brings us the coldest stretch of weather we’ve seen since November! Highs will really have to struggle to reach 40° most of the week, and overnight lows will drop well down into the 20s. Winter isn’t done with us quite yet, it seems…

I spent exactly zero time on work stuff over my four-day weekend, so I don’t have any nerd-links for you today. They’ll be back tomorrow!

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