January 28: Back and Forth With Clouds and Sun

Weather

WEATHER

The rain that moved through yesterday afternoon and evening is long gone, but some clouds lingered into the early hours of this morning. Even though the sun will take over, the clouds won’t be gone for long…and the sun will only warm us up to the upper 40s and low 50s.

We’ll see mostly clear skies overnight — the lack of our “cloud blanket” will allow temperatures to drop to around freezing by early Wednesday morning.

The clouds return gradually throughout the day on Wednesday, keeping high temperatures a few degrees below-average.

I can’t rule out a sprinkle or two late Wednesday, but if we’re going to see any rain it would likely hold off until overnight. The North American Model’s radar simulation from 5:00pm Wednesday through 5:00am Thursday shows most of the shower activity falling apart as it moves into central North Carolina.

I’ll be generous and call it a 30% chance tomorrow night. The better chance of measurable rain will move in late Friday, and could linger into Saturday.

There are still some discrepancies in the model data for that late-week storm system. The two most-reliable medium-range computers are the European model and the UKMET, and they have yet to converge on the most-likely scenario. While they both show a good chance of rain Friday night, the European model shows mostly light rain around here, with heavier rain near the coast.

The UKMET shows heavier rain over central North Carolina — not enough to cause widespread flooding, but enough to affect Friday afternoon’s commute.

Both models are trending toward a drier Saturday, but I’m not dropping the lingering shower chance from the forecast just yet. Sunday does look dry, and so does Monday…then we’re in for another stretch of showery weather by the middle of next week.

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