January 29: Sprinkles Tonight, Tracking Friday’s Rain



It was another frosty start this morning, but we’ll manage to at least approach our average high temperatures this afternoon, despite increasing clouds.

Those clouds won’t bring us much of a rain chance. We’ll stay dry today, and the only chance of a passing shower will remain south of the Triangle overnight. The HRRR model’s radar simulation from 8:00pm today through 8:00am tomorrow shows the measurable rain missing us off to the south.

Temperatures will drop to the 30s by early Thursday morning — colder north, a bit warmer south of the Triangle.

We’ll start the day with mostly cloudy skies on Thursday, before a clearing trend kicks in by afternoon. High temperatures will be very similar to today’s, maybe a degree cooler.

The clearing trend will be short-lived — the clouds return Friday, with rain chances late in the day. The most-widespread and heaviest rain will likely hold off until Friday evening and overnight. The European model’s simulation from noon Friday through 8:00am Saturday shows the rain moving off to our east already by sunrise Saturday.

We’re not quite done with the rain chances at that point, though. One more band of showers will probably work its way through late in the day Saturday…so while it doesn’t look like a washout, be flexible with any outdoor plans. Sunday does look dry, with above-average temperatures as well!

Odds are that the local rodents (including Sir Walter Wally) will see their shadows, which means…nothing. Nothing at all.

If you didn’t see it last year, here’s a little story I put together about the origins of Groundhog Day and rodent-based forecasting.

Regardless of what the squirrel says, next week will start off with substantially above-average temperatures, before a stretch of showery weather cools things off by the end of the week.


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