January 3: Warm, Then Wet



The off-and-on light showers we’re seeing this morning will be with us through early afternoon…inconvenient, but not a washout either. Widespread rain is on the way by this evening and tonight, and it could be here in time to impact the afternoon commute.

The HRRR model’s radar simulation from 9:00am through 5:00pm shows the light activity through mid-afternoon, with heavier rain over the northwest half of central North Carolina by sunset.

Temperatures will really warm up despite the clouds — strong southwesterly winds will push us into the 60s and 70s. Not quite record-setting, but WAY above-average.

A caveat to that temperatures forecast: this kind of pattern frequently makes forecasters look stupid. It’s possible that the winds don’t pick up enough to displace the cool air, leaving us stuck in the 50s. It’s also possible that the winds REALLY pick up, pushing temperatures up to near the Triangle’s daily record of 74°. In short…

This evening and tonight will be…WET.

Back to the HRRR model, from 5:00pm today through 7:00am tomorrow. It shows the heaviest rain falling this evening, with lingering light to moderate rain the rest of the night and into early Saturday morning.

I’m not concerned about significant flooding or any severe weather threat with this system, and it will be far too warm for any wintry precipitation. Temperatures will only fall to the upper 50s by early Saturday morning, with spots east and south of the Triangle staying in the 60s!

We’ll warm back up into the 60s by Saturday afternoon, in between some lingering off-and-on showers.

The North American Model’s simulation from 7:00am Saturday through 7:00am Sunday shows the widespread rain early in the day, diminishing to a few showers that will clear out Saturday night.

Total rainfall amounts should around one inch — a little more from the Triangle to the northwest, a little less to the southeast.

If you have outdoor things on the “honey-do” list this weekend, Sunday is the day to get that stuff done. The next chance of rain on Tuesday doesn’t look as impressive — just some showers moving in and out quickly Tuesday evening.

After a couple of dry days with near-normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday, another warm-up kicks in late next week, bringing a better chance of widespread rain.


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