January 7: Cold Rain Moving In



Thickening clouds this morning will bring us a good chance of rain from midday into the early afternoon hours. But as quickly as the rain moves in, it will move out just as fast.

The HRRR model’s radar simulation from 9:00am through 6:00pm shows the first of the showers moving in by 11:00am, with the last of the showers moving off the Coastal Plain by 4:00pm or so.

Temperatures will reach the 40s before the rain arrives — that’s not warm, but it’s warm enough that we don’t have to worry about snow, ice, or anything in between. Once the rain moves out, the clouds will break up — the emerging sun should help push us into the low 50s in the Triangle. It’s a tricky temperature forecast today…areas southeast of Raleigh could reach 60°, while places west of I-85 will be stuck in the 40s.

Skies will clear out tonight, and temperatures will drop back to the low to mid 30s by early Wednesday morning — almost exactly normal for early January.

Abundant sunshine will help boost temperatures into the 50s Wednesday afternoon, yet another day of above-average highs.

A cool-down Thursday won’t last long! Temperatures will be back into the 60s on Friday and the low 70s on Saturday. Saturday’s record high is 76°, set all the way back in 1890. Increasing temperatures mean increasing rain chances this time of year — the first wave of rain looks like it will move in late Saturday.

The warm-but-wet weather pattern will continue most of next week. This is one of those weather patterns where it’s easy to communicate the overall trend (“warm and damp”), but pinning down the specifics is very challenging. Just be flexible with outdoor plans this weekend and next week, and we’ll (hopefully) be able to narrow down the timing before each wave of rain arrives.


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