July 17: Excessive Heat, Higher Storm Chances



There’s really not much to say about today’s weather that hasn’t been said already this week. It will be extremely hot:The humidity is flat-out gross, and will remain so through the weekend:The combination of heat and humidity will produce heat indices near or above 105° this afternoon:That has forced the National Weather Service office in Raleigh to expand the Heat Advisory to include more counties, and it kicks in an hour earlier:If your county isn’t included in the advisory, it doesn’t mean you’ll be comfortable — it just means the heat index will stay short of 105°. To summarize:

The remnants of Hurricane Barry — now just an atmospheric ripple caught up in the flow of weather across the U.S. — will swing by over the next 36 hours. That means we’ll see a slightly better chance of scattered storms late today and again tomorrow…but it’s still lower than a 50-50 chance of free lawn-watering today:The HRRR model’s radar simulation from 10:00am today through 2:00am Wednesday shows the hit-or-miss activity — including a few stronger storms:

Those storms should die down shortly after midnight, and we’ll start off very warm and muggy again on Thursday, with temperatures in the 70s area-wide:Some lingering clouds in the morning will slow down the warm-up just a little bit…but it will still be really hot by tomorrow afternoon:And the heat index will still be dangerously hot:The North American Model’s radar simulation from noon through midnight shows some scattered activity, but not enough to crack the heat wave:

Temperatures return to the upper half of the 90s Friday through the weekend, which means the heat index will hover around 105°. Our rain chances return to what’s “normal” for mid-July, in the 30% range:An unsettled weather pattern will take shape next week, with higher daily storm chances — that will help crack the heat wave, but it won’t do anything about the humidity.


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