July 5: More Scattered Storms Through The Weekend


Plenty of atmospheric fireworks for the 4th of July yesterday, and more scattered storms are in the forecast through the rest of the holiday weekend. The best chance of storms today will develop by mid-afternoon and continue into the evening:Before those storms spread out, temperatures will reach the upper 80s and low 90s:Dew points will remain in the low 70s, pushing the heat index well into the 90s:The HRRR model (shown here from 10:00am through 10:00pm) thinks the storms won’t be quite as widespread as yesterday, but you should still plan for the strong possibility of rain:Be flexible with your outdoor plans and have an indoor alternative in mind. Our severe weather potential will be lower today, but we’ll keep a close eye on the radar, just in case.

We’ll repeat the same pattern on Saturday…and again on Sunday…and AGAIN on Monday.

Really not much change to the day-to-day forecast through early next week. Hazy, hot and humid every day, with a decent chance of scattered storms developing every afternoon:

A (potentially) interesting wrinkle in the long-range forecast appeared in this morning’s data: The European forecast model is trying to spin up some tropical shenanigans in the Gulf of Mexico late next week! There’s already some “Tropical Storm Barry” chatter on social media, which is SUPER premature. I’m not going to post any maps from the “operational” European model (it’s one run of one model) — instead, we’ll look at the European ensemble. That’s the European model run dozens of times with slightly different parameters, so we get a sense of the most-likely and least-likely scenarios. Make sense?

The ensemble estimates a pretty good chance (50-50 or a little above) that a tropical depression forms in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico late next week:But the ensemble also estimates a much lower chance (~25% or so) that it develops into a tropical storm (39 MPH winds or higher):And it’s a near-zero chance (technically, less than 5%) that a hurricane forms:So we’ll keep a close eye on it, but it isn’t something that should occupy your attention over the weekend.

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