If you stepped out the door this morning and forgot that autumn is less than two weeks away…well, that’s perfectly understandable. Temperatures started off about 10° above-normal, and the humidity is substantial.
Low cloud cover and fog this morning will gradually give way to late-summer sunshine, which will warm temperatures up to the mid to upper 80s this afternoon — a few spots south of the Triangle will probably reach the low 90s.
Factor in the humidity, and it will feel like the mid 90s.
The heat and humidity will help to fuel some scattered storms late this afternoon and this evening. Some of those storms could even linger past sunset, after we lose the sun’s heat.
The HRRR model’s radar simulation from noon through midnight shows the best chance of storms to the northeast of the Triangle, but I’d keep the umbrella handy in the Triangle too.
Most of that activity should fade off the radar after midnight, but temperatures won’t drop much — we’ll start off Tuesday morning around 70°.
A lingering shower or two early Tuesday won’t do much to slow down the warm-up once the sun breaks through again. While temperatures won’t be quite as warm as today, we’ll still end up a few degrees above-average.
The hottest weather will settle in Wednesday and Thursday — the record high Thursday is 96°, and we’ll give it a run. While there are some subtle ups and downs on the 5-day Muggy Meter, it’s just going to be a steamy week overall.
Another chance of scattered storms by Friday will drop us back to the 80s through the weekend. The weekend doesn’t look like a washout, but be flexible with outdoor plans, just in case.
The latest 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center shows a very good chance that warmer-than-normal temperatures will be with us all the way through the autumnal equinox.
Dorian is gone, but the tropics are still active. We’re watching three different areas of disturbed weather — fortunately, none of them are a cause for immediate concern. Tropical Storm Gabrielle is WAY out in the Atlantic, and will start racing farther to the northeast today. There’s a disorganized cluster of storms north of the Caribbean that could develop further as it approaches the Bahamas…let’s hope not! The National Hurricane Center estimates just a 20% chance that it becomes a tropical depression.
Another cluster of storms in the tropical Atlantic looks a bit more impressive, but the NHC estimates just a 30% chance that it becomes a tropical depression over the next 5 days.
The statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is tomorrow (September 10), so we have several more weeks to go before things should settle down. We’ll keep a close eye on everything, of course…
After a Dorian-induced hiatus, the nerd-links will be back tomorrow!