July 9: Lower Rain Chances, Lower Temperatures…Lower Humidity???

Weather

WEATHER

A little house-keeping off the top: for the next few days, we’ll be carefully monitoring the development of a tropical system in the Gulf Of Mexico. I’ll have a separate blog post each morning to deal specifically with that system — today’s update can be found right here. Your usual local weather breakdown and nerd-link collection will still be updated every day…so let’s get to it!

For the first time since before Independence Day, we’re looking at a lower than 50-50 rain chance today. The best chance of a few showers will be south of the Triangle, with a very low chance along the Virginia state line:The HRRR model’s radar simulation from 10am through 10pm shows a few radar blips, but that’s about it:Mostly cloudy skies will stick around through midday, slowing down the usual July warm-up. Once the sun peeks through this afternoon, we’ll warm up to the 80s — around 5° below-average for this time of year!While the humidity is still substantial this morning, northeasterly winds will bring in a slightly drier air mass by late afternoon and early evening. Dew points will still be in the 65°-70° range, so don’t expect “comfortable” air — I’ll be happy with “tolerable” humidity:

Less-humid air cools off more overnight, so temperatures have a decent chance of dropping below 70° by early Wednesday morning, at least from the Triangle northward:

Tomorrow’s rain chances will also be limited — the North American Model’s radar simulation from 9am through 9pm Wednesday shows the best chance developing in our southern counties once again:Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer, but still slightly below-average:

The next good chance of rain heads our way late Thursday. The European forecast model from 2pm Thursday through 2pm Friday shows the rain moving in by early evening, falling apart overnight, then re-developing on Friday:We’ll leave the rain chances in the 50-50 range for both days for now — there are still some questions about how widespread the rain will be and exactly when it will move in. Our rain chances drop for the weekend, while our temperatures do the opposite:The forecast early next week could be impacted by the developing tropical system in the Gulf, but right now it looks like central North Carolina won’t experience any direct impact.

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