June 19: Two More Days Of Unsettled Weather



Tuesday night brought some heavy rain to our counties along I-85, enough to prompt a Flash Flood Warning for a few hours. Areas between Bahama and Oxford picked up 2″-5″ of rain, as estimated by the radar:

More scattered showers and storms are in the forecast today. We’ll see hit or miss shower activity this morning, a break from the rain chances around midday, then more scattered storms late this afternoon and this evening:The HRRR model’s radar simulation from 9:00am through 9:00pm shows the hit-or-miss nature of today’s rain:During that break in the highest rain chances, temperatures will warm up into the 80s:But it will still be muggy enough to make it feel like the 90s!

After the showers fizzle out, it will just be steamy overnight. We’ll start off Thursday with temperatures about 3-5° above-average once again:

Dry weather will prevail through mid-afternoon on Thursday, allowing temperatures to return to the 90s:Factoring in the humidity, it will feel like almost 100°!Storms will develop to our west during the afternoon, and track into central North Carolina by Thursday evening. A couple of snapshots from our RPM forecast model show some impressive-looking storms moving west-to-east:The Storm Prediction Center thinks those storms will be a bit later to arrive, which is why they’ve only included our western counties in a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) of severe weather, with the rest of central North Carolina in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5):I really think the Slight Risk area will have to be expanded eastward, so we’ll keep you updated with the latest info. The analog forecast method (comparing tomorrow’s forecast pattern to similar historical patterns) shows a better than 50-50 chance of at least 5 severe weather reports in our neck of the woods:In general, the earlier the storms get here, the stronger they’ll be. If they hold off until after sunset, that will help us out. It’s not an off-the-charts severe threat either way, but just plan on staying weather-aware!

Our rain chances dry out on Friday, and the humidity won’t be as dreadful — not bad for the summer solstice! Back up to around 90° over the weekend, with the humidity creeping back in as well:


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