June 21: Nice Start To Summer

Weather

WEATHER

Yesterday’s storms certainly delivered on the wind damage potential — we had dozens of tree and structure damage reports from the Triangle northward:

Those storms are long gone now, and things are looking good for the rest of the day! We’ll see plenty of sunshine, but strong northwesterly winds will keep temperatures a few degrees below-average:More importantly, the humidity will be noticeably lower! Dew points around 60° may not qualify as “refreshing,” but at least the mugginess will be tolerable:

Temperatures tonight will drop off nicely, ending up in the 60s by early Saturday morning:

The weekend forecast is…complex. The upper-level winds that steer the weather across the country are going to be arranged in a way that could send clusters of storms toward central North Carolina. The HRRR model’s radar simulation from 9:00pm today through noon Saturday shows that the storms will develop over a thousand miles away (!) and track into central North Carolina early Saturday as they diminish in intensity:Our in-house RPM model shows the morning showers……then a break for much of Saturday, when we’ll warm up to the mid 80s……then some more scattered showers and storms by late afternoon and early evening:Some of the afternoon/evening storms could be on the strong side — the Storm Prediction Center has included our western counties in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe weather:I think that will be expanded to include more of central North Carolina. The SPC’s own forecast model shows a 40-50% chance of at least borderline severe ingredients coming together Saturday evening:

Okay, so here’s where I hedge my bets. Trying to forecast this type of weather pattern is very tricky…in fact, it brings the word “quixotic” to mind.

Here’s why: those storms are coming in from a LONG way off. A little change in their path means they could miss central North Carolina entirely tomorrow morning. If the first batch of showers misses us, it re-arranges the whole setup for the rest of the day…temperatures would be warmer, the late-day storms could behave differently or even fail to develop. A third cluster of storms heads our way Saturday night, and its behavior will be determined by what the first two clusters do. Chaos theory takes over in a hurry, is what I’m saying.

So take the weekend forecast with a grain of salt roughly the size of Kansas. Be flexible with your outdoor plans, but I wouldn’t necessarily cancel anything unless you absolutely positively need a guarantee of dry weather. It doesn’t happen often, but I’m more confident in the long-range forecast than I am in the 48-hour forecast — next week just looks hazy, hot and humid:

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