November 11: Pleasant Today, Unpleasant Tuesday



Veterans Day is bringing us some really nice weather! Temperatures started off cool, but we’re on our way up to the upper 60s to around 70° this afternoon.

Enjoy today’s mild temperatures, because a strong cold front will move through central North Carolina on Tuesday. We’ll only drop to around 50° by early Tuesday morning…

…but that will be the warmest that we get during the day. Temperatures will steadily fall all day Tuesday, to the upper 30s and low 40s by late afternoon.

Strong northerly winds will bring the colder air in — not only will it be breezy, but it will also be WET. The HRRR model’s radar simulation from 1:00am through 1:00pm Tuesday shows the first showers moving in around sunrise, with the heaviest rain falling from mid-morning into early afternoon.

Temperatures won’t just drop here at ground level — they’ll also be dropping in the upper levels of the atmosphere. That means a chance of few snowflakes mixing with the last of the raindrops late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. The North American Model’s simulation from 1:00pm through midnight shows that brief mix as the rain departs.

In terms of accumulation, don’t get your hopes up. While you might see a few flakes in the air, you won’t see them add up on the ground. Roads will just be wet — even the “snowiest” scenario only indicates a slushy dusting on lawns and rooftops to the north of the Triangle.

The cold air just keeps flowing into central North Carolina once the rain moves out. By Wednesday morning, we’ll be waking up to record-tying low temperatures in the low 20s.

Wednesday’s high of 41° would break the record for November 13’s coldest high temperatures! After another cold start Thursday, we’ll warm up a bit more…but we’ll still be about 15° below-average.

The weekend forecast one that can be only summarized with this GIF.

The long-range forecast models are showing widely different versions of the weekend forecast. The European forecast model indicates a coastal storm system that would give us light rain showers, and a strong northeasterly breeze that would keep temperatures well below-average.

But the American GFS model keeps that system farther from shore, which would lead to lower rain chances and warmer temperatures. I’m tilting the extended forecast toward the more-reliable European solution, but it’s still one of those things that could go either way.

We’ll keep you updated all week! Things should come into better focus once tomorrow’s cold front moves through…


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