November 21: Dry Again Today, More Rain Ahead



We started off chilly this morning, with temperatures around freezing…but a nice warm-up will kick in and it’s looking like a pleasant late-autumn day overall. Even with some fair-weather clouds filtering the sun, southwesterly winds will help push highs into the mid to upper 50s.

The clouds will be with us intermittently overnight, gradually thickening by sunrise on Friday. I’m hoping we’ll see enough of a break in the clouds for you to see tonight’s potential “meteor outburst” — look to the east-southeast just before midnight.

The southwesterly wind and increasing clouds cover will keep temperatures from falling too far, only into the 40s by early Friday morning.

And even with more clouds than sunshine on Friday, we’ll climb to the low to mid 60s thanks to those stronger southwesterly winds.

The clouds will try to squeeze out a few rain showers — a lot of the moisture will evaporate on the way down, so if it rains, it will be brief and light. The HRRR model’s radar simulation from 1:00am through 1:00pm Friday shows the best chance over the northern half of central North Carolina.

Saturday will bring us a much higher rain chance, especially later in the day. The European forecast model’s simulation from 7:00am Saturday through 7:00am Sunday shows off-and-on showers much of Saturday, with the most-widespread and heaviest rain moving in Saturday evening and overnight.

The rain will be out of here by sunrise on Sunday, and second half of the weekend is looking nice! The dry weather will continue into the beginning of Thanksgiving week.

Another chance of showers will head our way for Wednesday, one of the busiest travel days of the year. The latest forecast data indicates a lower chance of light rain showers across North Carolina…but of course, it would just take a little rain to cause problems with so much traffic on the roads.


Tropical Storm Sebastien continues to strengthen in the Atlantic Ocean this morning, now with 60 mph sustained winds as of 4:00am.

The National Hurricane Center forecast shows Sebastien becoming a hurricane within the next 24 hours, before it becomes “post-tropical” over the weekend.

It’s a bit late in the Atlantic season for a hurricane, but we’re not in record territory. Just three years ago, Hurricane Otto formed in late November and even became a major Category 3 storm before making landfall in Nicaragua. Unlike Otto, Sebastien won’t threaten land…and hopefully this is the last storm we have to track until the 2020 season!


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