Like yesterday, we started off with temperatures near freezing this morning…and like yesterday, we’ll warm up quickly! Temperatures will hit the low to mid 60s this afternoon, about 5° above-average for late November.
We’ll see increasing clouds this afternoon and this evening — that blanket of clouds will keep temperatures from dropping as far overnight. We’ll start off Wednesday with temperatures in the mid to upper 40s.
More clouds than sun throughout the day Wednesday, but just a slight chance of a passing shower. The best chance will be around midday, and it won’t be heavy enough to cause major problems on the roads. The HRRR model’s radar simulation from 4:00am through 1:00pm shows most of the rain falling apart as it moves into central North Carolina.
Temperatures will warm up to the mid to upper 60s for highs on Wednesday despite the clouds.
It will be breezy on Wednesday, with sustained winds at 15 to 20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph.
The wind calms down Wednesday night, and Thanksgiving Day is looking nice overall!
Another better chance of rain will head our way on Sunday. The European forecast model’s simulation from 1:00pm Saturday through 1:00pm Monday shows the rain moving in late Saturday night and sticking around most of Sunday. Not exactly ideal for post-Thanksgiving travel, but things could be worse! More on that in a second…
Once that system moves through, temperatures will drop to slightly-below-average levels through most of the first week of December.
THANKSGIVING TRAVEL WEATHER
If you’re traveling long-distance for Thanksgiving, be prepared for some delays in BOTH directions. Central North Carolina’s rain chances Wednesday and Sunday are associated with much larger storm systems that will cause widespread problems across the country.
The first storm system has already dropped a foot of snow in Denver, and it will do the same into the Upper Midwest today and tonight.
The major travel hubs (Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia, New York, etc.) won’t see too much in terms of snow or ice, but delays will still be likely because of windy conditions. The European model’s simulation from 7:00am Wednesday through 7:00pm Thursday shows the progression of the storm system…the gray lines on the map are isobars, lines of constant pressure. The more tightly packed those isobars are, the stronger the winds will be — in this case, 40+mph gusts will be likely.
And that’s just the first storm system! The second one will hit the Pacific coast already today — heavy rain, snow, and gusty winds will spread into the mountains tomorrow. This is the European model’s simulation from 7:00am today through 7:00am on Thanksgiving.
We’ll move the map eastward to show that storm system’s progression Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Snow, rain, ice, wind, and just general nastiness will spread through the Upper Midwest once again, especially Friday and Saturday.
That “general nastiness” will hit the northeastern U.S. Saturday and Sunday — once again, flight delays will be likely.
All things considered, we’re lucky to just have to deal with rain on Sunday. Road conditions won’t be great, but at least the ice and snow (and strongest winds) will stay off to our north. Just be patient, and stay plugged into the forecast in case you have to adjust your travel plans.
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