November 7: Here Comes The Cold Air

Weather

WEATHER

We started off cool this morning, but southwesterly winds will help warm us up nicely, even with increasing clouds overhead. Temperatures will reach the upper 60s and low 70s this afternoon, a few degrees above-average.

That pretty much does it in terms of above-average temperatures for the foreseeable future. A strong cold front will move in from the west tonight — before it brings us the cold air, it will bring us a good chance of rain overnight.

The HRRR model’s radar simulation from 2:00pm today through 8:00am tomorrow shows the rain moving in well after sunset, and mostly moving out by sunrise Friday morning.

The cold air will arrive right on the heels of the rain. Temperatures will drop to the low to mid 40s early Friday morning…that’s “normal” for early November, but the strong northerly wind will make it feel colder.

Even with plenty of sunshine the rest of Friday, temperatures will be almost stuck — we’ll only get back to the mid to upper 40s and low 50s by Friday afternoon.

The really cold air settles in Friday night, with this autumn’s first hard freeze likely by Saturday morning. A slow warming trend will kick in over the weekend, returning us to the 60s for highs by Sunday and Monday.

But yet another, and stronger, blast of cold air is on the way next week. A little behind-the-scenes forecasting info: we look at temperatures about a mile above ground level to identify warm and cold air masses. At that level, we don’t see the “diurnal” variation from day to night, so it’s a more-consistent view. The 7-day loop of those temperatures clear shows the cold air moving in tonight, the warmer air moving back in for a couple of days, then the even colder air arriving by the middle of next week.

We might even have to break out the wind chill map by Wednesday morning, as low temperatures drop down to the mid 20s for a couple of days. Highs will only reach the 40s Wednesday and Thursday — that’s below-average for January, let alone the middle of November!

At least we don’t have to worry about ice or snow…yet.

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