October 1: From Aug-tember to Hot-tober

Weather

WEATHER

We just finished the 6th-warmest September on record in the Triangle — just 0.1° away from cracking the Top 5.

The new month is bringing us the same old weather pattern…record high temperatures are in serious jeopardy today, tomorrow and Thursday. Some morning clouds will try to slow down today’s warm-up, but like yesterday, those clouds won’t last long. Temperatures will reach well into the 80s this afternoon.

We’ll be very close to today’s record high in the Triangle — the record high in Fayetteville looks out of reach for today.

Winds will shift to the southwest by late this evening, which will keep temperatures very warm overnight. We’ll barely drop below 70° by early Wednesday morning, if we even manage that.

The hottest weather that we’ll see until next summer will settle in tomorrow and Thursday. Temperatures will reach the low to mid 90s by Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday’s high of 95° and Thursday high of 97° will absolutely CRUSH the Triangle’s records for those dates. The all-time October record for the Triangle is 98° — we’ll give that a serious run on Thursday.

Friday is “transition day,” as a cold front will bring lower humidity levels to central North Carolina.

We won’t see much of a rain chance with the front, but I can’t completely rule out a stray shower or storm. The actual fall-like air will arrive in time for the weekend!

Looking ahead to the month of October overall, the latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center shows a significant chance of above-average temperatures overall, and a better-than-average chance of drier-than-average conditions.

TROPICAL UPDATE

After reaching Category 5 hurricane status on Sunday, Lorenzo has steadily weakened over the last 48 hours — but it’s still a Category 2 hurricane as of 5:00am, with 100 mph sustained winds and gusts to 120 mph.

Lorenzo will slowly weaken as it races to the northeast today and tomorrow. It’s likely to track directly over the western Azores as a Category 1 hurricane tonight.

After that, Lorenzo becomes “post-tropical” as it moves over colder water in the North Atlantic. It will still bring high surf and gusty winds late this week, as it heads toward Ireland and Scotland.

There are two other areas of disturbed weather that we’re tracking in the tropics, but neither has a good chance of significant development over the next 5 days, and neither will track toward the U.S. coast.

LINKS

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