October 29: Clouds Today, Showers Tomorrow, Storms For Halloween?



Yesterday’s weather was nothing short of fantastic, but the forecast deteriorates the rest of the week. Today still won’t be bad — despite mostly cloudy skies, temperatures will still warm up to the low 70s this afternoon.

Just a slight shower chance today, mainly south of the Triangle late this afternoon into this evening. The HRRR model’s radar simulation from 10:00am through 10:00pm shows the pattern, but I think it’s overestimating the amount of rain that will actually hit the ground.

The clouds will stick around tonight, and temperatures won’t drop too much — we’ll end up in the upper 50s and low 60s by early Wednesday morning.

A warm front will move south-to-north across central North Carolina on Wednesday, bringing us a pretty good chance of off-and-on light rain showers. With the increased rain chances, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than today.

The North American Model’s simulation from 6:00am through midnight shows that Wednesday won’t be a washout, but there will be enough activity that you should keep the umbrella handy.

The warm front will usher in some substantially warmer temperatures for Halloween — we’ll reach the upper half of the 70s, which is WAY above normal. Off-and-on showers will be with us as well, so I can’t guarantee dry weather for the trick-or-treat ghouls and goblins…that said, the best chance of heavier rain looks like it should hold off until later Thursday night.

This is the European forecast model’s simulation from 7:00am Thursday through 7:00am Friday. It shows the off-and-on shower during the day, the heaviest rain moving in around midnight, then just a few isolated showers by sunrise Friday.

The overnight timing of the heaviest rain would help to limit any severe weather potential around here. But IF things speed up, we could see a line of marginally severe storms moving in during the evening, bringing some gusty winds and heavy downpours.

Don’t adjust your trick-or-treat plans at this point…again, it looks like the heaviest rain will fall overnight. But stay plugged-into the forecast for potential changes! Once the rain moves through, the first several days of November look dry but cool — maybe even cool enough for Frost Advisories early next week!


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