Rain showers moved in from the south early this morning, and we’ll be dodging off-and-on showers throughout the day. The most-widespread and heaviest rain will fall through early afternoon, then the showers will be more hit-or-miss later in the day.
The HRRR model’s radar simulation from 8:00am today through 8:00am Thursday shows that pattern, along with more overnight off-and-on showers.
The clouds and rain will keep temperatures from moving too much throughout the day. We’ll be stuck in the 60s from the Triangle northward, with a better chance of hitting the 70s farther south.
Thursday will bring us more off-and-on showers throughout the day, but it will be windy and substantially warmer.
Late in the day is when things get complicated — we’re tracking the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in central North Carolina for Halloween evening. Right now, it looks like the greatest severe weather threat will move in from the west around 9:00pm, and track west-to-east across the area through early overnight. (This is the simulation from our RPM model.)
Other forecast models are showing a very similar scenario. If that timing holds, the trick-or-treat crowds will just have to dodge some spotty off-and-on showers — inconvenient, but not dangerous.
But IF the storms speed up just a little, the severe weather threat will be higher, and it will arrive earlier — potentially as early as 6:00pm. The Storm Prediction Center’s “Slight Risk” outlook for severe weather is focused more to our west, but that region would shift along with the storms if they speed up or slow down.
Damaging straight-line winds will be the primary threat, and there will be enough wind energy in the atmosphere to support an isolated tornado risk as well. Large hail is unlikely, and while there will be some heavy downpours, they won’t last long enough to cause flooding.
To emphasize: the most-likely scenario is that the storms don’t move in until late evening, which means the greatest severe threat will remain to our west. (The storms will weaken more and more later in the evening, as they move eastward.) Keep checking the forecast, though — we’ll be evaluating new data continuously over the next 36 hours. And as you head out with the kids for trick-or-treating Thursday evening, make sure you have a source of weather information in case warnings are issued.
Thursday night’s rain will be gone by sunrise Friday morning — and the cool air will settle in for the end of the work week and the weekend.
After a chilly (frosty?) start Monday morning, a little warm-up will return us to near-normal temperatures by Tuesday and Wednesday. Another slight chance of showers will bring the next wave of cool air into our neck of the woods by Thursday and Friday.
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