September 11: July-tember Weather Continues

Weather
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WEATHER

We saw some dense fog this morning, but that’s not going to slow down the warm-up — we’re still in for hazy, hot and humid weather most of the day. Highs will reach the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon.

The humidity really won’t go anywhere for the next several days…just a few little ups and downs on the 5-day Muggy Meter.

The humidity will push today’s heat index into the mid to upper 90s…maybe even 100° around Fayetteville.

It will be even hotter tomorrow! Our highs in the mid 90s will get very close to record territory.

Since the humidity will still be substantial, heat indices will be higher as well.

We’ll see a few spotty storms late in the day, but they won’t pop up in time to cool things off. The North American Model’s radar simulation from noon through midnight shows the best chance developing in the evening.

A better chance of scattered showers and storms will develop on Friday, which will drop our high temperatures back into the 80s. The European model’s simulation from 6:00am through midnight shows a decent chance of rain, although it won’t be an all-day washout.

Here’s the big question for the weekend — how much of the cloud cover and how much of the rain will linger? Right now I think the answer is “not much,” so I’m leaving our rain chances low…but not zero, either. Saturday will probably have more clouds than Sunday, with slightly cooler temperatures.

If you’re looking for some long-range relief from the heat and humidity…well, just keep on lookin’. The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook shows a near-certainty of above-average temperatures through the end of next week.

And the CPC’s 8-14 day outlook shows a good chance that the heat sticks around all the way through the autumnal equinox.

TROPICS

We’re still watching three areas of disturbed weather in the tropical Atlantic, one of which could feed some moisture our way next week. Currently it’s a disorganized cluster of storms just north of the Caribbean, tracking steadily to the west-northwest. The National Hurricane Center estimates a 60% chance that it becomes at least a tropical depression over the next five days, as it tracks into the Gulf of Mexico.

The European forecast model’s ensemble (the same model run 50+ times with slightly different conditions, to give us a sense of the most-likely scenario) shows a good chance we’re looking at a tropical depression in the Gulf by the end of the weekend.

From there, the ensemble’s “spaghettios” animation shows the system turning north toward the MS/AL/FL coast. That path would allow some of the remnant moisture to sneak up toward us by the middle of next week.

Obviously we’ll keep a close eye on that system…and we’re also watching two disturbances farther out in the Atlantic. Neither is showing strong signs of becoming even a tropical depression over the next five days.

Some of the long-range forecast data is more enthusiastic in developing those systems as they move farther west. We’ll be watching them, and trying to mentally will them to go away.

LINKS

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