September 16: Hot Again Today, Relief On The Way

Weather

WEATHER

We have a genuine taste of autumn in the forecast this week…but it’s not here quite yet. As this morning’s dense fog dissipates, the late-summer sunshine will push high temperatures to the upper half of the 80s, even near 90°.

Factor in the still-substantial humidity, and it will feel like the low to mid 90s.

Temperatures tonight will drop to the mid to upper 60s, with locally dense fog developing again.

Tuesday will be another warm and muggy day — highs will into the 80s again.

A weak cold front will drop in from the northeast on Tuesday…that will “squeeze” the atmosphere overhead and wring out a few showers. The North American Model’s radar simulation from noon through midnight isn’t too impressive — it’s only a 1-in-3 chance of a passing shower late in the day.

The more noticeable impact of that cold front will be the drop in humidity — the 5-day Muggy Meter shows a huge decrease by Wednesday morning, and we’ll stay in “nice” territory the rest of the week!

Temperatures will also be quite pleasant from Wednesday into the first half of the weekend — upper 70s and low 80s for highs, and overnight lows in the 50s!

We’ll heat up again over the weekend, and it looks like we’ll be back up to around 90° by early next week. So make some plans to get out late this week to enjoy the early taste of autumn…

TROPICS

Humberto became a hurricane last night — it’s just far enough from the U.S. coast to avoid having a direct impact on our weather. It’s a Category 1 storm this morning, with 85 mph sustained winds and 105 mph gusts.

The storm will strengthen to Category 2 tomorrow as it picks up speed and races away from the U.S. coast. The National Hurricane Center’s forecast path takes Humberto close to Bermuda by late Wednesday night, still as a strong Category 2 hurricane.

After that, Humberto will turn to the north and merge with a larger non-tropical storm system — it will be “post-tropical” by end of the week.

Elsewhere in the tropics, there’s a cluster of storms in the Gulf of Mexico that we’re keeping an eye on. It’s unlikely to even become a tropical depression before it moves inland over Texas, bringing some heavy rain to that state later this week.

Farther out in the Atlantic, there’s another cluster of storms that has a much better chance of getting organized — the NHC estimates a 90% chance it becomes at least a tropical depression over the next five days (likely sooner than that).

The European forecast model’s ensemble estimates a 50-50 chance that we’re looking at Tropical Storm Imelda by the end of the week (the area at the bottom right of this image).

Where it goes and how much is strengthens after that is highly speculative. It’s a fish storm for now, but we’ll keep a close eye on it over the next several days!

LINKS

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